Journal Articles

Permanent URI for this collectionhttp://localhost:4000/handle/20.500.12504/178

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Barriers and Opportunities in Harnessing Geothermal Energy: A Case Study of East Africa
(Journal of Energy Research and Reviews, 2024-11-28) Mutumba, Geoffrey Ssebabi; Twinamasiko, Emmanuel; Kifanta, Sanday; Lule, Simon; Erugu, Elijah
This paper examines geothermal energy applications and development in East Africa. With a large geothermal power potential of 30,000MW, about 5% of this potential has been developed in the region. This study uses secondary data to review source documents, empirical literature and archival information, which was triangulated to obtain greater truths. The findings are that geothermal energy is mainly used for power generation and other direct uses. The outstanding barriers are mainly political, economic, socio-cultural, technological environmental and legal regulatory that should be overcome to achieve robust industrialisation among member countries. The prospects include Reliable Power generation, Diversified clean energy source, employment and direct uses. The concluding remarks include suggesting a policy shift to geothermal power as a clean energy option that is a credible source for sustainable industrialisation. There should be a renewable effort to train human resource, set up geothermal policy to fast truck power development options. This study investigates and brings forth the developments in the geothermal power development. It also highlights the drivers and barriers to geothermal development. It also brings possible policy measures to the social and economic planners in expanding the renewable energy sector.
Modeling the Predictors of Poverty in Agricultural Households in Uganda: Application of Multilevel and Interaction Methods
(East African Journal of Business and Economics, 2024-11-06) Habimana, Robert; Tindimwebwa, Kenneth; Okurut, Francis
This study aimed to model the predictors of poverty in agricultural households in Uganda. The study's specific objectives were to examine the effect of individual predictors of poverty and analyze the contribution of community predictors of poverty in agricultural households. The study utilized data from the Uganda National Household Survey (UNHS, 2019/20) obtained from the Uganda Bureau of Statistics. A sample of 13,732 households was randomly selected from the total weighted sample representation of 11.3 million households involved in agricultural activities. A logit model was used in the analysis and estimates were provided using multilevel and interaction methods. Key findings suggest that poverty in agricultural households was positively and significantly influenced by the gender of the household head, marital status of the household head, income stability of the household, age of the household head and livestock ownership. Additionally, regional differences accounted for 17.9 % of the variations in poverty levels in Uganda and understanding such regional differences and their influence on poverty levels can assist policymakers and organizations in designing targeted interventions and policies to reduce poverty levels among households. Such measures can address the specific challenges faced by different regions and promote more equitable development across the country. However, poverty in agricultural households was negatively and significantly influenced by residence status, savings account ownership and household size. Based on the study's findings, the key policy recommendations were that; the government should continue implementing gender- focused interventions to address gender disparities among women empowerment programs that involve access to resources including land, equal access to employment opportunities and equal access to education to reduce poverty among women. Regarding income instabilities in agricultural households due to price fluctuations, the government should empower farmers to form farmer groups where they can collectively increase their bargaining power to avoid price fluctuations.
Determinants of access to bank credit by smallholder agricultural households in Uganda: evidence from UNHS 2019/2020
(East African Journal of Business and Economics, 2024-11-05) Areebahoona, Anthony; Tindimwebwa, Kenneth; Okurut, Francis
Agricultural credit plays a significant role in boosting cash and food crop production for household consumption, domestic and foreign markets. The purpose of this study was to investigate the determinants that affect smallholder farmer’s access to bank credit in Uganda. The study used data from the Uganda National Household Survey 2019/2020 (UNHS). The study utilized a logit regression model for the analysis of data. The findings from the model showed that farmer’s access to bank credit in Uganda was positively and significantly influenced by sex of the household head, income level of the household head, marital status of the household head, age of the household head and ownership of a bank savings account. The study’s conclusions led to the development of key policy recommendations. These include promoting a savings culture through various initiatives, providing incentives such as special savings accounts or matching deposit programs, creating customized banking products to carter to farmers needs and offering free tertiary education to graduates of Universal Primary Education, Universal Secondary Education, and Universal Post O Level Education and Training.
Assessing the effectiveness of information and technology on maternal health care access: evidence from Uganda DHS 2016
(East African Journal of Business and Economics, 2024-09-20) Kizza, James; Wasswa, Gabriel; Tumwine, Geoffrey Norman; Mohebbi, Taha; Amwonya, David
Background: The growing importance of information and technology in improving healthcare access, though increasingly stressed, is not adequately researched. Seventy-five percent of maternal deaths in Uganda still arise from preventable diseases, partly due to a lack of awareness. The current study sought to establish the role of information and technology; and other demographic factors that affect maternal healthcare access. Methods: We estimate an ordered logistic regression on the UDHS 2016 data set. The study sample consisted of 11311 mothers aged 15-49. The study model distance and money to measure the severity of accessing health care services. Results: Information and technology play significant roles in improving access to healthcare. The significance increases the higher the frequency. Those who listen to the radio or watch television at least once a week are less likely to report severe problems in accessing health care than those who do not listen or watch at all (-0.11; -030) respectively. Reading newspapers or magazines less than once a week significantly affects healthcare access (-0.09). Possession of a mobile phone improves health care access (-0.60). Aging limits health access while urban residence (0.12), wealth (-0.42), education (-0.26) and partner’s occupation (-0.30) improve maternal health access. Conclusion: Information and technology play an essential role in improving maternal access to health care services and the frequency with which the information is provided matters. Access to maternal health care is positively related to urban residence, more education, a higher level of wealth index, and the partner’s occupation and negatively related to aging.
Education and fertility preference among women in Uganda
(Tanzania Journal of Health Research, 2024-07-26) Kizza, James; Wasswa, Gabriel
Background: Women's education is pivotal in addressing elevated fertility rates, particularly in developing nations. Despite declining fertility rates, Uganda sustains a high fertility rate of 6.2, surpassing the sub-Saharan Africa regional average of 4.6. This heightened fertility poses a significant obstacle to Uganda's sustainable development goals. This study investigates the relationship between female education and fertility preference among Ugandan women in 2006, 2011 and 2016. Methods: The study used data from the Uganda Demographic and Health Survey for 2006, 2011, and 2016, with a sample of 6,216, 5,205, and 10,741 women, respectively. A multivariable logistic model was utilized to establish the relationship between female education and fertility preference. Results: Findings revealed the existence of an inverse relationship between female education and fertility preference over the years 2006, 2011 and 2016 (Primary OR=0.67, 95% CI 0.53-0.84; OR=0.58, 95% CI 0.45-0.74; OR=0.70, 95% CI 0.57-086) respectively. For secondary or more education, OR =0.43, 95% CI 0.22-0.87; OR=0.56, 95%CI 0.34-0.92, OR =0.80, 95% CI 0.56-1.14) respectively. Fertility preference is inversely related to the mother’s income status, age and number of living children. Fertility preference is positively associated with the ideal number of children and contraceptive use. Conclusion: This study has shown that female education helps to manage women’s fertility preferences. Educated women can access information and get better employment to decide on the desired family size. The study advocates for the continued education of females to empower them in actively shaping their desired family size. It is recommended that government efforts to strengthen universal access to education at both primary and secondary levels. To cater for those outside the school setting, we recommend the strengthening of programmes on sexual reproductive health that should include an open discussion on the ideal family size.
Efficient tariff system in the electricity distribution: Evidence from Uganda
(Journal of Energy Research and Reviews, 2024-03) Mutumba, Geoffrey Ssebabi; Amerit, Bosco; Kaddu, Milly; Mubiinzi, Geoffrey; Bashir, Hassan; Birungi, Felister; Nakajubi, Florence; Jaza, Muhamood; Senyonga, Livingstone
This study investigates incentive regulation to foster an efficient tariff system in the electricity distribution subsector in Uganda. This study seeks to find empirical evidence to support the argument that regulation is associated with efficiency among distributors. It seeks to design an appropriate model of incentive regulation within the distribution subsector. It assesses the efficiency of existing tariff setting system with a view of guiding policy on how best incentives should be appropriated. It uses the data envelopment analysis and stochastic frontier analysis to investigate how distribution firms use input costs to come up with an efficient end user tariffs. Quarterly data used is from Electricity Regulatory Authority (ERA) covering the period 2013-2019. The findings are that distribution firms cost inputs are inconsistent with the way they their operational and maintenance costs are generated and transmitted to end user tariff. The regulator should be keen on the way tariff is set such that it is fair to all players in the electricity markets. Incentive regulation has a positive influence on cost efficiency and end user tariff. A reduction in energy losses and energy purchases from transmitter makes up the most efficient cost drivers. Lastly, tariff regulation has increased efficiency in operations through in improved quality and reliability of power distribution. First and foremost is reduced load shedding, secondly is more reliable power distribution to end users. Appropriate Incentive regulation has a direct effect on cost of utility and in increasing access of vulnerable groups.
Critical review of bioenergy applications and sustainable development: Evidence from Uganda
(Journal of Energy Research and Reviews, 2023-07) Mutumba, Geoffrey Ssebabi
This study investigates bioenergy applications and sustainable development in Uganda. Traditional biomass dominates Uganda’s energy mix with 89% of overall primary energy consumption. Uganda must reduce traditional biomass energy consumption, if it is to reinforce its sustainable development goals. It seeks to assess bioenergy applications; it also analyses drivers and barriers of biomass consumption. Bioenergy is a renewable energy source that is conveniently available. This explains why it is dominating in most of the Sub-Saharan Africa. However, most of this is the traditional biomass, because of the insufficient technology to modernise its use in the developing world. This study is to provide a useful pattern for this transition from traditional to modern bioenergy use to occur. The findings indicate an in-built use of traditional biomass because of the drivers that outweigh the constraints of its use. Suggested policy measures to transition to modern biomass energy consumption are made. This study provides critical review of bioenergy application and development in the Ugandan setting. This is a landmark in informing the economic planner on the right policy direction of diversifying energy use from traditional to modern sources.
Modelling renewable energy consumption and economic growth in Uganda
(International Journal MultiDisciplinary Research, 2024-04) Mutumba, Geoffrey S.; Odong, Tomson; Bagire, Vincent
Back ground: This study models renewable energy consumption and economic growth, with evidence from Uganda (1982-2018). The hypothesis that explains causality between renewable energy consumption and economic growth follows the growth, conservation, feedback and neutral. Methods: The study uses vector error correction model (VECM) and structural vector auto regression (VAR), within a multivariate data framework. The Pairwise Granger test was specifically used to establish the direction of causality between variables of study. The Johansen co-integration test was carried out to ascertain if there exists a long run relationship between renewable, domestic investment, foreign direct investment and real GDP. Results: The results support the neutral hypothesis between renewable energy consumption and economic growth. Conclusion: The conclusion therefore is a unidirectional relationship running from of renewable energy consumption to economic growth Implications/Relevance/Originality /Value: This paper provides insights into how renewable energy consumption drives economic growth and sustainable development.
Renewable energy consumption and economic growth in Uganda
(Journal of Energy Research and Reviews, 2022-02) Mutumba, Geoffrey S.; Mubiinzi, Geoffrey; Kaddu, Milly; Otim, Jacob
This paper concerns itself with the relationship of renewable energy consumption on economic growth in Uganda using data of 1988-2018. Uganda is gifted with renewable energy resources and should be exploring the possibility of meeting the Sustainable Development Goal 7. This paper uses vector error correction model, the augmented Dickey Fuller test for stationarity while for cointegration the Johansen test were used. The Granger test was used to test for causality between the variables of interest. The findings indicate a negative relationship between renewable energy and economic growth. While a positive relationship exist between Gross Domestic Product and gross capita formation, electricity trade, carbon dioxide emissions and Trade Openness that are taken as controls of this model. In conclusion therefore, Uganda need to pursue clean energy policies, while expanding its electricity trade in the East African community in order to absorb the excess electricity supply over peak domestic consumption. This paper will also increase the understanding on the need to integrate energy markets with in the region for greater benefits.
Renewable and non‑renewable energy consumption and economic growth in Uganda
(Springer Nature Business & Economics, 2022-06) Mutumba, Geoffrey Ssebabi; Odongo, Tomson; Okurut, Francis Nathan; Bagire, Vincent; Senyonga, Livingstone
This study investigates the effect of renewable energy and non-renewable consump- tion on Uganda’s economic growth in the period between 1990 and 2015. The major objective of this study is to ascertain whether there exist a credible relationship between renewable and non-renewable energy on Uganda’s economic growth in the period under the review.The study uses auto regressive distributed lag and Granger Wald test to investigate the the causal relationship between renewable and non- renewable energy consumption on Uganda’s economic growth in the period under the review. The Results in this study indicate that there exist a positive relationship between non-renewable energy consumption and Uganda’s economic growth in the short run, while there exist a negative relationship between renewable energy con- sumption and Uganda’s economic growth in the period under review. This study indicates that more empahasis should be put on the exploitation of non-renewable energy consumption in Uganda as it leads to more economic growth in the country.
Electricity consumption and economic growth: Evidence from the East African community
(Energy Strategy Reviews, 2024-06) Geoffrey, Ssebabi Mutumba; Geoffrey, Mubiinzi; David, Amwonya
This study investigates the dynamic causal relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in the East African Community (1990–2021). It seeks to interrogate the nature of relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth. The hypothesis used in this study is four folded including growth, conser- vation, feedback and neutral hypothesis. It uses panel data estimation techniques, particularly the panel dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS), fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS), and non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL). The panel augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF)-fisher and Levin, Lin & Chu (LLC), 2003, was used to test the unit root process. Dumitreschu-Hurlin (2012) and pairwise Granger tests were used to test for the direction of causality. The findings indicate growth hypothesis with a unidirectional relationship running from electricity con- sumption to economic growth. Regional governments must increase their investments in electricity market trading to boost economic growth. Greater benefits from regional cooperation can be realized with increased investment in electricity consumption. This is a novel study of the dynamic causal relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in the East African Community. It is a ground-breaking inquiry into the possibility of integrating electricity markets and their role in promoting economic growth.
The Relationship between Academic Programme Type and Student Satisfaction with the Quality of Higher Education in Uganda
(International Journal of African Higher Education, 2023-10-26) Bagonza, Godfrey; Kaahwa, Yuda Taddeo
This study examined the relationship between the type of academic programmes offered in Ugandan higher education institutions and student satisfaction with the quality of higher education. Highquality academic programmes are those that focus on the outcomes of the higher educational processes, including student retention and graduate destinations and employability, as well as expectations of earnings proportional to the qualification. Employing quantitative and qualitative research methods, the study analysed data gathered from 400 undergraduate students, six quality assurance directors, and 12 academic heads of departments in six Ugandan universities. It found that students in different academic disciplines and different universities believed that the academic programmes they selected were strongly related to their satisfaction with the quality of higher education.
Microbiological analysis of domestic water sources in Banda slum of Kampala, Uganda
(Journal of Water, Sanitation and Hygiene for Development, 2021) Barugahara, Evyline Isingoma; Stephen, Kwesiga
There is scarcity of information about the safety of water in Banda slum of Kampala, Uganda and yet reports indicate outbreaks of infectious diseases such as typhoid fever and cholera. The aim of this study was to determine the risk of exposure to waterborne infections by Banda residents due to faecal contamination of water sources. Four hundred respondents were sampled and interviewed on the methods of water collection, treatment and storage. Water samples were collected with sterile glass bottles in duplicate from the dug well, protected spring and piped water system in December 2018 on two different consecutive days. They were transported to the laboratory for total and faecal coliform count analysis within 2 h using a lightproof-insulated box containing ice-packs. The mean Escherichia coli count for the dug well was 43 ± 18 c.f.u/mL. The protected spring had no detectable E. coli, but its total plate count level was 76 ± 1.4 c.f.u/mL. Only 46% of the respondents treated their drinking water using boiling and filtering methods. Poor sanitation and hygiene practices were observed. The total and faecal coliform counts of water sources were unsatisfactory making Banda residents highly at risk of infectious diseases, given the small number of residents that treated water.
Performance of nutritionally optimized millet porridges as complementary food for children from low socio-economic status households in Bujenje county, western Uganda
(Journal of Nutritional Health & Food Science, 2018-01) Barugahara, Evyline Isingoma; Samuel, K Mbugu; Edward, G Karuri
Lack of proper complimentary foods continues to be a problem in many parts of the world, especially among low socio-economic status households. The main objective of this study was to evaluate the effect of optimised millet porridges on the nutritional status of moderately malnourished children. The study was a closed cohort study involving 93 moderately wasted children aged 7-36 months and their mothers/caretakers. Thirty two children recruited from Ntooma village centre were fed on traditional millet porridge as the control while 30 from Karongo and 31 from Kiryamyongo village centres were fed on millet porridges optimised with 7% moringa leaf powder and 17% pumpkin flesh powder respectively. Optimised millet porridges were fermented using lactic acid fermentation starter cultures. Anthropometric measurements, dietary assessments and morbidity patterns of children in the study were monitored for 4 months. One way ANOVA (Analysis of Variance) and Chi-square tests were used to analyse the effect of porridges on the nutritional status of children. In all cases a p value of < 0.05 was regarded as significant. All children fed on optimised millet porridges recovered from wasting by the 6th week and being underweight by the 12th week, compared to 26 and 25 percent of children that were still wasted and underweight respectively among those fed on traditional millet porridges. Children fed on traditional millet porridge had their Height for Age (HAZ) scores deteriorate while those on optimised millet porridges had their HAZ scores improved. Diarrhoea incidences were significantly high among children fed on traditional millet porridge (P = 0.006). Fermented moringa and fermented pumpkin millet porridges can therefore be adopted as better options for complementary feeding among low socio-economic status households of Western Uganda.
Allocative inefficiency of general hospitals in poor countries: a case study of Uganda
(East African Journal of Interdisciplinary Studies, 2021-06) Max, Ajanga
The increasing costs of healthcare arising largely from the growing population and emergence of non-communicable diseases have exerted pressure on healthcare budgets in poor countries. With a funding gap of 7% to realize WHO recommended target of 15 percent of GDP in Uganda, there is a need for hospitals to be efficient in allocation of financial resources in order to provide the required level of healthcare services. Most studies on Uganda have focused on the technical inefficiency of general hospitals and evidence on their allocative inefficiency is limited. Understanding the sources of inefficiency in the allocation of finances in general hospitals in Uganda is important to improve their performance. The purpose of this study was to determine the allocative inefficiency of the general hospitals in Uganda in order to provide a source of misuse of public allocations to a particular general hospital. Panel data from 22 general hospitals for the period 1997-2007 were used. Allocative inefficiency was estimated using Stochastic Frontier Analysis. The findings show that general hospitals are systematically allocatively inefficient in distributing the public funds given to them. The allocative inefficiencies value is high on payments of employee benefits (34.8 percent), followed by the purchase of drugs (29.2%) and lastly, costs on utilities like electricity and water (14.1%). To address the existing allocative inefficiencies, general hospitals in Uganda can improve the process of hiring of labour and management of staff payroll; monitor procurement of drugs, and reduce wastages in the use of utilities.
Effects of carbon dioxide emissions on agricultural production indexes in East African community countries: Pooled mean group and fixed effect approaches
(Energy Nexus, 2023-12) Jacob, Otim; Susan, Watundu; John, Mutenyo; Vincent, Bagire; Muyiwa, S Adaramola
The ongoing climate change threat brought by the increase of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in the atmosphere has rekindled global activism to address its detrimental effects on agricultural production with the maximum tenacity. The current study, consequently, examines the causal effect between CO2 emissions and agricultural production indexes while controlling for renewable energy consumption, arable land and governance, using data spanning from 1996 to 2019. The study applied pooled mean group/Autoregressive distributed lag and fixed effect approaches and tested for the causality between the variable of interest using the Dumitrescu and Hurlin Granger non-causality test. The long-run equation shows that CO2 emissions, renewable energy consumption, labour force and arable land size have positive effects on the crop production index. Whereas, renewable energy consumption, labour force, arable land size and governance positively affect the livestock production index. While no causality exists between CO2 emissions and crop production index. However, the effects of governance and the size of arable land on agricultural production remained inconclusive. To achieve the UN Sustainable Development Goal of zero hunger for their people, East African Community countries need to commercialize agricultural production and embrace more eco-friendly farming techniques.
The portrait of Uganda’s informal sector: What main obstacles do the sector face?
(Cogent Economics & Finance, 2020-10) Salmon, Mugoda; Stephen, Esaku; Rose, Kibuka Nakimu; Edward, Bbaale
In this paper, using primary data collected from business owners, we examine the nature and obstacles in the informal sector of Uganda. We find that education level matters in the selection of enterprises. The bulk of businesses, like eating kiosks, fish selling, shoe shining among others that require no specialized skill to operate were mainly run by primary school dropouts and those with no formal level of education. Furthermore, we find evidence of a strong entrepreneurial spirit among secondary school dropouts than at any other education level. Across all businesses surveyed, secondary school dropouts run a high number of informal enterprises. Evidence suggests that their motivation is driven by two key factors, namely, wanting to take advantage of an existing business opportunity and failure to find employment in the formal sector. The empirical results show that access to finance, crime, theft and disorder, electricity, water, taxes, burdensome inspections, and informal gifts are robust and significant obstacles to the operations of the informal sector in Uganda. Policies should focus on a regulatory framework that supports the sector to create secure livelihoods and generate employment opportunities for the unemployed rather than viewing the sector as a source of “illegality.” Improving access to finance, providing regular power and water supply, and improving the tax regime would mitigate the obstacles faced by informal businesses leading to possible formalization. Informal sector businesses should not be perceived as “illegal entities” but rather complementary effort by an increasingly enterprising population in the country.
The long-and short-run relationship between the shadow economy and trade openness in Uganda
(Cogent Economics & Finance, 2021) Stephen, Esaku
This paper examines the relationship between the shadow economy and trade openness in Uganda, using autoregressive distributed lag bounds testing approach. We find that the shadow economy and trade openness have a long- and short-run relationship. These results hold even when alternative econometric methods are used. The empirical evidence indicates that more exposure to foreign trade sig- nificantly reduces the size of the shadow economy. This could imply that as countries become more integrated into the world economy, firms and individual entrepreneurs are induced to engage in the formal sector so as to reap the benefits of international markets. This paper shows that trade openness is an important determinant of the shadow economy in both the short- and long-run. At the policy level, any policy framework that strengthens integration into the global economy will be an effective tool that can reduce shadow activities in both the short- and long-run. The practical implication of these results is that countries that have fully reformed their economies to allow for free trade and investment inflows experience a decline in shadow activities implying that, in more open economies, more trade reduces informality.
Institutionalized democracy and the shadow economy in the short- and long-run: empirical analysis from Uganda
(Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, 2022) Stephen, Esaku
This paper investigates the relationship between institutionalized democracy and the shadow economy in both the long- and short-run. Using time series data from Uganda that cover the period from 1991 to 2015, this paper applies autoregressive distributed lag method to investigate this relationship. How democracy affects the shadow economy in less developed countries like Uganda is not well understood. This paper aims to fill the above knowledge gap. The findings show that the shadow economy and institutionalized democracy are negatively correlated in both the short- and long-run. This implies that improvement in institutionalized democracy significantly hinders the rise of shadow activities. This indicates that institutions regulate the conduct of economic agents and determine how entrepreneurs engage in eco- nomic activities. Moreover, institutions are crucial in resource allocation which in turn leads to welfare improvement. Improvement in welfare of citizens reduces their incentive to engage in informal sector activities since the formal sector provides the necessary support needed to operate legally. These findings are robust to alternative econometric methods. Two practical implications of these findings stand out. First, these findings indicate that reforming the governance system to facilitate efficient resource allocation could be one way of addressing widespread informality in developing economies. Second, these results also indicate that minimizing informality in the economy should gradually move away from emphasis on tackling proximate causes of informality to democratic reforms that change the authority patterns. In this case institutionalized democracy is another important channel of mitigating the rise of the shadow economy.
Has the low level of economic growth spurred informal sector activities in Uganda? An empirical analysis
(African Journal of Economic and Management Studies, 2021-09) Stephen, Esaku
Purpose – In this paper, the authors examine how economic growth shapes the shadow economy in the long and short run. Design/methodology/approach – Using annual time series data from Uganda, drawn from various data sources, covering the period from 1991 to 2017, the authors apply the ARDL modeling approach to cointegration. Findings – This paper finds that an increase in economic growth significantly reduces the size of the shadow economy, in both the long and short run, all else equal. However, the long-run relationship between the shadow economy and growth is non-linear. The results suggest that the rise of the shadow economy could partially be attributed to the slow and sluggish rate of economic growth. Practical implications – These findings imply that addressing informality requires addressing underlying factors of underdevelopment since improvements in economic growth also translate into a reduction in the size of the shadow economy in the short and long run. Originality/value – These findings reveal that the low level of economic growth is an issue because it spurs informal sector activities in the short run. However, as the economy improves, it becomes an incentive for individuals to operate in the informal sector. Additionally, tackling shadow activities in the short run could help improve tax revenue collection.

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