Department of Economics

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Adoption of information communication technology (ICT) and determinants of performance of SACCOs’ in Uganda
(Kyambogo University (Unpublished work), 2024-10) Kabugo, Robert
The study focused on adoption of ICT and determinants of performance of SACCOs’ in Uganda. The three specific objectives included: to investigate the effects of ICT on SACCOs’ performance, to determine other factors that determine SACCOs’ performance in Uganda. Further, the study investigated the determinants of ICT adoption among SACCOs in Uganda. The study used primary data collected from different SACCOs that had embraced the use of ICT in their operations in Uganda. A population of 420 reflecting sample size of 201 SACCOs was interviewed. The study employed a multiple logistic regression model to analyze the effect of ICT on SACCOs’ performance and other factors that determined SACCOs’ performance in Uganda. The study also used an ordered logistic regression model to explore the different factors that determine SACCOs’ ICT adoption levels in Uganda based on three levels that is low, medium and high. The study results revealed that ICT expenditure and number of functional computers were positive and statistically significant at 0.04 percent with ICT adoption and 7.6 percent respectively holding other factors in the model constant in influencing profitability. The study further found out that total accumulated savings and total loan portfolio amount of the SACCO were positive and statistically significant at 0.256 percent and approximately 0.2 percent respectively holding other factors constant in the model and membership size was positive though non-significant in influencing the performance of the SACCO. The ordered logistic model results revealed that number of ICT trained staff, internet access, number of ICT training and age of the SACCO were factors that positively and significantly determines the probability of SACCO ICT adoption levels at 1% and 10% respectively. The study therefore, recommended that SACCOs should earmark more funds for ICT adoption and use, increase the availability of functional computers since they had significant effect, encourage and motivate members to save more and also continuously train their staff in ICT related tools among others to improve SACCOs performance and also adopt ICT in their operations.
Allocative inefficiency of general hospitals in poor countries: a case study of Uganda
(East African Journal of Interdisciplinary Studies, 2021-06) Max, Ajanga
The increasing costs of healthcare arising largely from the growing population and emergence of non-communicable diseases have exerted pressure on healthcare budgets in poor countries. With a funding gap of 7% to realize WHO recommended target of 15 percent of GDP in Uganda, there is a need for hospitals to be efficient in allocation of financial resources in order to provide the required level of healthcare services. Most studies on Uganda have focused on the technical inefficiency of general hospitals and evidence on their allocative inefficiency is limited. Understanding the sources of inefficiency in the allocation of finances in general hospitals in Uganda is important to improve their performance. The purpose of this study was to determine the allocative inefficiency of the general hospitals in Uganda in order to provide a source of misuse of public allocations to a particular general hospital. Panel data from 22 general hospitals for the period 1997-2007 were used. Allocative inefficiency was estimated using Stochastic Frontier Analysis. The findings show that general hospitals are systematically allocatively inefficient in distributing the public funds given to them. The allocative inefficiencies value is high on payments of employee benefits (34.8 percent), followed by the purchase of drugs (29.2%) and lastly, costs on utilities like electricity and water (14.1%). To address the existing allocative inefficiencies, general hospitals in Uganda can improve the process of hiring of labour and management of staff payroll; monitor procurement of drugs, and reduce wastages in the use of utilities.
Assessing the effectiveness of information and technology on maternal health care access: evidence from Uganda DHS 2016
(East African Journal of Business and Economics, 2024-09-20) Kizza, James; Wasswa, Gabriel; Tumwine, Geoffrey Norman; Mohebbi, Taha; Amwonya, David
Background: The growing importance of information and technology in improving healthcare access, though increasingly stressed, is not adequately researched. Seventy-five percent of maternal deaths in Uganda still arise from preventable diseases, partly due to a lack of awareness. The current study sought to establish the role of information and technology; and other demographic factors that affect maternal healthcare access. Methods: We estimate an ordered logistic regression on the UDHS 2016 data set. The study sample consisted of 11311 mothers aged 15-49. The study model distance and money to measure the severity of accessing health care services. Results: Information and technology play significant roles in improving access to healthcare. The significance increases the higher the frequency. Those who listen to the radio or watch television at least once a week are less likely to report severe problems in accessing health care than those who do not listen or watch at all (-0.11; -030) respectively. Reading newspapers or magazines less than once a week significantly affects healthcare access (-0.09). Possession of a mobile phone improves health care access (-0.60). Aging limits health access while urban residence (0.12), wealth (-0.42), education (-0.26) and partner’s occupation (-0.30) improve maternal health access. Conclusion: Information and technology play an essential role in improving maternal access to health care services and the frequency with which the information is provided matters. Access to maternal health care is positively related to urban residence, more education, a higher level of wealth index, and the partner’s occupation and negatively related to aging.
Assessing wind energy development in Uganda: opportunities and challenges
(Wind Engineering : Sage Journals, 2021-01-01) Wabukala, Benard M; Otim, Jacob; Mubiinzi, Geoffrey; Adaramola, Muyiwa S
In this paper, we utilize a systematic review to assess opportunities and challenges in wind energy development in Uganda. Apart from being an environmentally friendly and renewable energy resource, development of wind energy could boosts economic growth and creates jobs. For Uganda, rising energy demand, need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and increasing electricity access to rural areas, emerge as rational opportunities to invest in wind energy. The main obstacles to wind energy development in Uganda are insufficient wind resource data, high initial investment cost, inadequate research and development, weak infrastructure, and unsupportive policies. For policy, comprehensive wind resource assessment, energy infrastructure investment, financial de-risking, capacity building, and deliberate wind power policy incentives could accelerate wind energy development and consequently contribute to the country’s energy security.
Balancing green and growth: do innovation and contribution drive sales and environmental performance?
(Discover Sustainability, 2025-04-08) Hussain, Rana Yassir; Adil, Muhammad; Tumwine, Geoffrey Norman; Hussain, Haroon; Irshad, Hira
This study examines the impact of industrial innovations and contributions on the new products’ sales and environmental performance. The Present study adds to the prior knowledge by incorporating the environmental concerns emanating from the sales of new products. The past literature in this domain is scant, primarily concentrating on overall figures. The impact is analysed using the two-step system Generalised Method of Moments (GMM) regression approaches to analyse 30 provinces’ worth of combined data from Chinese firms from 2009 to 2020. The results show that foreign fund flows have a negative effect on new products’ sales and environmental performance. Besides, industrial innovation, measured through the effective number of patents, has a positive effect on the sales of new products but a negative impact on their environmental performance. Meanwhile, R&D expenditures positively affect sales and environmental performance of new products. Industrial expenditures positively affect new products’ sales and environmental performance by improving manufacturing processes and adopting eco-friendly technologies. The study proposes that policymakers implement policies related to green innovations, sustainable practices and eco-friendly technologies in industrial zones. Adopting efficient R&D strategies can lead to manufacturing products that meet market demands and create less harm to the environment.
Barriers and Opportunities in Harnessing Geothermal Energy: A Case Study of East Africa
(Journal of Energy Research and Reviews, 2024-11-28) Mutumba, Geoffrey Ssebabi; Twinamasiko, Emmanuel; Kifanta, Sanday; Lule, Simon; Erugu, Elijah
This paper examines geothermal energy applications and development in East Africa. With a large geothermal power potential of 30,000MW, about 5% of this potential has been developed in the region. This study uses secondary data to review source documents, empirical literature and archival information, which was triangulated to obtain greater truths. The findings are that geothermal energy is mainly used for power generation and other direct uses. The outstanding barriers are mainly political, economic, socio-cultural, technological environmental and legal regulatory that should be overcome to achieve robust industrialisation among member countries. The prospects include Reliable Power generation, Diversified clean energy source, employment and direct uses. The concluding remarks include suggesting a policy shift to geothermal power as a clean energy option that is a credible source for sustainable industrialisation. There should be a renewable effort to train human resource, set up geothermal policy to fast truck power development options. This study investigates and brings forth the developments in the geothermal power development. It also highlights the drivers and barriers to geothermal development. It also brings possible policy measures to the social and economic planners in expanding the renewable energy sector.
Critical review of bioenergy applications and sustainable development: Evidence from Uganda
(Journal of Energy Research and Reviews, 2023-07) Mutumba, Geoffrey Ssebabi
This study investigates bioenergy applications and sustainable development in Uganda. Traditional biomass dominates Uganda’s energy mix with 89% of overall primary energy consumption. Uganda must reduce traditional biomass energy consumption, if it is to reinforce its sustainable development goals. It seeks to assess bioenergy applications; it also analyses drivers and barriers of biomass consumption. Bioenergy is a renewable energy source that is conveniently available. This explains why it is dominating in most of the Sub-Saharan Africa. However, most of this is the traditional biomass, because of the insufficient technology to modernise its use in the developing world. This study is to provide a useful pattern for this transition from traditional to modern bioenergy use to occur. The findings indicate an in-built use of traditional biomass because of the drivers that outweigh the constraints of its use. Suggested policy measures to transition to modern biomass energy consumption are made. This study provides critical review of bioenergy application and development in the Ugandan setting. This is a landmark in informing the economic planner on the right policy direction of diversifying energy use from traditional to modern sources.
Determinants of access to bank credit by smallholder agricultural households in Uganda: evidence from UNHS 2019/2020
(East African Journal of Business and Economics, 2024-11-05) Areebahoona, Anthony; Tindimwebwa, Kenneth; Okurut, Francis
Agricultural credit plays a significant role in boosting cash and food crop production for household consumption, domestic and foreign markets. The purpose of this study was to investigate the determinants that affect smallholder farmer’s access to bank credit in Uganda. The study used data from the Uganda National Household Survey 2019/2020 (UNHS). The study utilized a logit regression model for the analysis of data. The findings from the model showed that farmer’s access to bank credit in Uganda was positively and significantly influenced by sex of the household head, income level of the household head, marital status of the household head, age of the household head and ownership of a bank savings account. The study’s conclusions led to the development of key policy recommendations. These include promoting a savings culture through various initiatives, providing incentives such as special savings accounts or matching deposit programs, creating customized banking products to carter to farmers needs and offering free tertiary education to graduates of Universal Primary Education, Universal Secondary Education, and Universal Post O Level Education and Training.
Determinants of access to bank credit by smallholder agricultural households in Uganda: evidence from UNHS 2019/2020
(Kyambogo university (Unpublished work), 2024-07) Areebahoona, Anthoney
The purpose of this research was to investigate the determinants that affect smallholder farmer’s access to bank credit in Uganda. The study used data from the Uganda National Household Survey 2019/2020 (UNHS). The study utilized a logit regression model for the data analysis. The findings from the logit model showed that farmer’s access to bank credit in Uganda was positively and significantly influenced by sex of the household head, income level of the household head, marital status of the household head, age of the household head and ownership of a bank savings account. The study’s conclusions led to the development of key policy recommendations. These include promoting a savings culture through various initiatives, providing incentives such as special savings accounts or matching deposit programs, creating customized banking products to carter to farmers needs and offering free tertiary education to graduates of Universal Primary Education (UPE), Universal Secondary Education (USE), and Universal Post O level Education and Training (UPOLET).
Determinants of balance of payments among countries in eastern Africa
(Kyambogo University (Unpublished work), 2024-05) Mutale, Robert
Balance of Payments plays a crucial role as an economic indicator, giving valuable perspectives on economic exchanges of a nation on the global stage. Despite its significance, numerous African nations consistently grapple with deficits in their BOP, lacking clear explanations for such shortfalls. This dissertation employs fixed effects and random effects estimations to investigate the determinants of BOP, focusing specifically on Eastern African countries. Drawing upon data from World Bank development indicators spanning from 1991 to 2021, the study utilizes various econometric techniques to discern underlying trends. Key findings reveal that foreign direct investments exert a positive influence on BOP, while money supply, gross domestic product and trade openness exhibit negative impacts. Specifically, foreign direct investments emerge as statistically significant drivers, suggesting the need for policies that encourage and facilitate their inflow. In light of these results, fostering an environment conducive to foreign direct investment through incentives, infrastructure investment, and the establishment of favorable legal frameworks are recommended. Additionally, certain variables were found to have negligible impact on BOP, underscoring the importance of focusing efforts on factors proven to be statistically significant.
Determinants of carbon dioxide emissions: role of renewable energy consumption, economic growth, urbanization and governance
(2025-02-11) Jacob, Otim; Susan Watundu; John Mutenyo; Vincent Bagire
CO2 emissions continue to raise development and scholarly concerns yet the factors influencing these emissions remain inadequately and variedly addressed. Using a panel of East African Community (EAC) countries, we revisit and test the drivers of CO2 emissions, and the causal relationship between governance, renewable energy consumption, economic growth, urbanization, and CO2 emissions. Framed on the STIRPAT model, results show that the inverted U-shaped environmental Kuznets hypothesis is valid for all the EAC countries. Findings from long-run CO2 emissions elasticity of urbanization is robust and indicates that urbanization has a significant positive impact on the environmental degradation of approximately 85% of the countries studied. Conversely, the consumption of renewable energy and the presence of good governance both contribute to a reduction in CO2 emissions, thereby enhancing environmental quality. Besides, economic growth and governance Granger cause CO2 emissions. Our assessment infers that investing in renewable energies and promoting good governance are crucial for reducing emissions. Additionally, the study provides important policy recommendations that can help East African Community countries achieve the Sustainable Development Goals.
Determinants of interest rate spread in Uganda’s banking sector
(Kyambogo University (Unpublished work), 2024-07) Kutosi, Demas Lukoye
Interest rate spreads are one of the main indicators for banking sector efficiency and financial sector development. Interest rate margins or spread are a key determinant of financial intermediation and access as well as economic growth. Uganda has one of the highest interest rate spreads in Sub-Saharan Africa. However, there is limited understanding of the underlying causes of bank spreads in Uganda. A puzzling question in banking and finance literature that endures is what are the key drivers of high bank spreads in Uganda? This study examined the sources of interest rate spreads in Uganda. It analyzed the bank, non-consumer and macroeconomic factors influencing bank spread in Uganda, spanning the period from Quarter 4 2008 to Quarter 4 2022 using ARDL modelling approach. The findings indicate liquidity risk and bank rate have a significant positive long run influence on spread whereas credit risk, Return on Assets, Operational Efficiency, GDP growth and Financial Sector Development had a significant negative long run impact on spread. However, Reserve Requirement and Inflation had an insignificant impact on spread in Uganda’s banking sector. The study suggests that commercial banks and policy makers in Uganda should consider the internal, industry and macroeconomic environment in coming up with measures to enhance the sector’s efficiency. This research did not include all the factors influencing interest rate spread such as leverage ratio, market concentration, public sector domestic borrowing thus future studies are recommended to examine their effect on interest rate spread.
Does corruption contribute to the rise of the shadow economy? Empirical evidence from Uganda
(Cogent Economics & Finance, 2021) Esaku, Stephen
This paper investigates whether corruption has contributed to the rise of the shadow economy in Uganda. Using autoregressive distributed lag bounds testing approach and granger causality econometric methods we find a positive relationship between corruption and the size of the shadow economy in both the long- and short-run. Additionally, the causality results reveal a bidirectional causal relationship between the shadow economy and corruption, and vice versa. These findings suggest that, for the case of Uganda, an increase in corruption contributes to the rise in the size of the shadow economy and vice versa, all else equal. Given the complementary relationship between corruption and the size of the shadow economy, addressing widespread informality in the country would require; first, reforming the political system to tackle political corruption and go after politicians who use their influence and power to circumvent institutions. Second, carrying out institutional reforms to address political patronage and influence peddling would go a long way into addressing systemic corruption which in turn could help mitigate the spread of informal sector activities. Third, strengthening the enforcement of existing laws to identify and punish culpable public officials who use their offices for private gain would also address the level of informality in the country.
Does income inequality increase the shadow economy? Empirical evidence from Uganda
(Development Studies Research, 2021) Stephen, Esaku
This paper applies the autoregressive distributed lag bounds testing method to investigate the long- and short-run relationship between the size of the shadow economy and income inequality in Uganda. The findings reveal evidence of the long and short-run relationship between the shadow economy and income inequality. We find that a rise in income inequality significantly increases the size of the shadow economy in Uganda, all else equal. These results are robust to the use of alternative econometric methods. At the policy level, instituting income redistribution policies to uplift the standard of the poor, improving resource allocation to productive sectors of the economy, reforming the tax system and macroeconomic environment, and implementing political and institutional reforms to address corruption could be viable policy options to address informality in Uganda.
Economic growth through gender parity: evidence from education, labour, and governance in Uganda
(Social Sciences & Humanities Open, 2025-04-14) Mubiinzia, Geoffrey; Mutumba, Geoffrey Ssebabi
This study examines the extent to which gender parity in education, labour force participation, and governance influences Uganda's economic growth. It investigates whether progress in these dimensions of gender equality leads to sustained economic benefits by analysing both short- and long-run effects using an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model and annual data from 1997 to 2023. The results reveal contrasting effects: while educational parity has a positive but statistically insignificant long-run impact, suggesting that increased female enrolment alone is insufficient for economic transformation, labour force parity exerts a significant negative longrun effect due to structural inefficiencies, such as occupational segregation and under-employment. By contrast, governance parity, measured by female representation in parliament, demonstrates a significant short-run positive effect, indicating that inclusive decision-making can yield immediate economic gains, although its long-run effect remains statistically insignificant due to institutional constraints. These findings highlight the need for structural reforms to enhance the quality of female employment, institutional governance effectiveness, and the alignment between education and labour market demands. Policymakers should prioritize gender-sensitive policies that foster productive employment, strengthen governance reforms, and improve economic returns on educational parity to maximize the contribution of gender equality to economic growth. This study provides empirical evidence supporting gender-inclusive economic strategies, offering valuable insights for Uganda and similar economies in sub-Saharan Africa.
Education and fertility preference among women in Uganda
(Tanzania Journal of Health Research, 2024-07-26) Kizza, James; Wasswa, Gabriel
Background: Women's education is pivotal in addressing elevated fertility rates, particularly in developing nations. Despite declining fertility rates, Uganda sustains a high fertility rate of 6.2, surpassing the sub-Saharan Africa regional average of 4.6. This heightened fertility poses a significant obstacle to Uganda's sustainable development goals. This study investigates the relationship between female education and fertility preference among Ugandan women in 2006, 2011 and 2016. Methods: The study used data from the Uganda Demographic and Health Survey for 2006, 2011, and 2016, with a sample of 6,216, 5,205, and 10,741 women, respectively. A multivariable logistic model was utilized to establish the relationship between female education and fertility preference. Results: Findings revealed the existence of an inverse relationship between female education and fertility preference over the years 2006, 2011 and 2016 (Primary OR=0.67, 95% CI 0.53-0.84; OR=0.58, 95% CI 0.45-0.74; OR=0.70, 95% CI 0.57-086) respectively. For secondary or more education, OR =0.43, 95% CI 0.22-0.87; OR=0.56, 95%CI 0.34-0.92, OR =0.80, 95% CI 0.56-1.14) respectively. Fertility preference is inversely related to the mother’s income status, age and number of living children. Fertility preference is positively associated with the ideal number of children and contraceptive use. Conclusion: This study has shown that female education helps to manage women’s fertility preferences. Educated women can access information and get better employment to decide on the desired family size. The study advocates for the continued education of females to empower them in actively shaping their desired family size. It is recommended that government efforts to strengthen universal access to education at both primary and secondary levels. To cater for those outside the school setting, we recommend the strengthening of programmes on sexual reproductive health that should include an open discussion on the ideal family size.
Effects of carbon dioxide emissions on agricultural production indexes in East African community countries: Pooled mean group and fixed effect approaches
(Energy Nexus, 2023-12) Jacob, Otim; Susan, Watundu; John, Mutenyo; Vincent, Bagire; Muyiwa, S Adaramola
The ongoing climate change threat brought by the increase of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in the atmosphere has rekindled global activism to address its detrimental effects on agricultural production with the maximum tenacity. The current study, consequently, examines the causal effect between CO2 emissions and agricultural production indexes while controlling for renewable energy consumption, arable land and governance, using data spanning from 1996 to 2019. The study applied pooled mean group/Autoregressive distributed lag and fixed effect approaches and tested for the causality between the variable of interest using the Dumitrescu and Hurlin Granger non-causality test. The long-run equation shows that CO2 emissions, renewable energy consumption, labour force and arable land size have positive effects on the crop production index. Whereas, renewable energy consumption, labour force, arable land size and governance positively affect the livestock production index. While no causality exists between CO2 emissions and crop production index. However, the effects of governance and the size of arable land on agricultural production remained inconclusive. To achieve the UN Sustainable Development Goal of zero hunger for their people, East African Community countries need to commercialize agricultural production and embrace more eco-friendly farming techniques.
The effects of gross domestic product and energy consumption on carbon dioxide Emission in Uganda (1986-2018)
(International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 2022-01) Otim, Jacob; Mutumba, Geoffrey; Watundu, Susan; Mubiinzi, Geoffrey; Kaddu, Milly
This study examines the effects of energy consumption and per capita gross domestic product on carbon dioxide emission which is a precursor for global warming due to its large scale impact on the environment. The effect of per capita gross domestic product and per capita energy consumption on carbon emission per capita in Uganda is not clearly known. This study fills the empirical gap for Uganda for 1986-2018. The study used Vector Error Correction techniques and the results suggest evidence of a long-run relationship between the variables at a 5% significance level using the Johansen cointegration test. The estimated elasticity of carbon dioxide emission per capita with respect to gross domestic product per capita is 1.856. The results for the existence and direction of Granger causality show a unidirectional causality running from gross domestic product per capita to carbon dioxide emission per capita and the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis is supported. In addition, there is no causal link between energy consumption per capita and gross domestic product per capita, which supports the growth neutrality hypothesis. The overall results indicate that gross domestic product per capita has a positive effect on carbon dioxide emission in Uganda while energy consumption does not Granger cause carbon dioxide emission.
Efficient tariff system in the electricity distribution: Evidence from Uganda
(Journal of Energy Research and Reviews, 2024-03) Mutumba, Geoffrey Ssebabi; Amerit, Bosco; Kaddu, Milly; Mubiinzi, Geoffrey; Bashir, Hassan; Birungi, Felister; Nakajubi, Florence; Jaza, Muhamood; Senyonga, Livingstone
This study investigates incentive regulation to foster an efficient tariff system in the electricity distribution subsector in Uganda. This study seeks to find empirical evidence to support the argument that regulation is associated with efficiency among distributors. It seeks to design an appropriate model of incentive regulation within the distribution subsector. It assesses the efficiency of existing tariff setting system with a view of guiding policy on how best incentives should be appropriated. It uses the data envelopment analysis and stochastic frontier analysis to investigate how distribution firms use input costs to come up with an efficient end user tariffs. Quarterly data used is from Electricity Regulatory Authority (ERA) covering the period 2013-2019. The findings are that distribution firms cost inputs are inconsistent with the way they their operational and maintenance costs are generated and transmitted to end user tariff. The regulator should be keen on the way tariff is set such that it is fair to all players in the electricity markets. Incentive regulation has a positive influence on cost efficiency and end user tariff. A reduction in energy losses and energy purchases from transmitter makes up the most efficient cost drivers. Lastly, tariff regulation has increased efficiency in operations through in improved quality and reliability of power distribution. First and foremost is reduced load shedding, secondly is more reliable power distribution to end users. Appropriate Incentive regulation has a direct effect on cost of utility and in increasing access of vulnerable groups.
Electricity consumption and economic growth: Evidence from the East African community
(Energy Strategy Reviews, 2024-06) Geoffrey, Ssebabi Mutumba; Geoffrey, Mubiinzi; David, Amwonya
This study investigates the dynamic causal relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in the East African Community (1990–2021). It seeks to interrogate the nature of relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth. The hypothesis used in this study is four folded including growth, conser- vation, feedback and neutral hypothesis. It uses panel data estimation techniques, particularly the panel dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS), fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS), and non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL). The panel augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF)-fisher and Levin, Lin & Chu (LLC), 2003, was used to test the unit root process. Dumitreschu-Hurlin (2012) and pairwise Granger tests were used to test for the direction of causality. The findings indicate growth hypothesis with a unidirectional relationship running from electricity con- sumption to economic growth. Regional governments must increase their investments in electricity market trading to boost economic growth. Greater benefits from regional cooperation can be realized with increased investment in electricity consumption. This is a novel study of the dynamic causal relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in the East African Community. It is a ground-breaking inquiry into the possibility of integrating electricity markets and their role in promoting economic growth.

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