Mathematical Modeling of Traffic Flow in Kampala City Using the Moving Observer Method

Abstract

The purpose of the study was to investigate the variables affecting traffic flow in Kampala Central Business District (CBD), employing a quantitative approach. The rapid urbanization has led to a huge increase in the number of vehicles, resulting in traffic congestions, delays, and financial losses especially in the Kampala CBD area. Data on traffic density, speeds, and driver behaviors were collected for a period of 20 days from five selected road sections leading into and out of the city which included traffic on Entebbe Road, Jinja road, Sir Apollo Kaggwa Road, Yusuf Lule and Wandegeya roads using the moving observer method. Regression analysis was done to identify the relationships between the variables, leading to the development of a predictive model for traffic flow. The study found out that the flow tends to increase as the day progresses and as well flow rate increases with increase in density. As the week progressed, the flow rate decreased as number of people coming to town on weekends is low since there is no work. A mathematical model was generated which could be used to predict the traffic intensity on the road at a given day and time. The model shows that changing from weekdays to weekend, the flow decreases by about 29%, and as density increases by 1%, the flow also increases by 1.5% over time. The study recommends prioritizing public transportation improvement, establishment of out of city parking yards, utilizing the other various means of transport other than road and promoting non-motorized modes of transportation in order to reduce traffic density on the road and subsequently manage congestion.