Sensitivity of streamflow to changing rainfall and evapotranspiration in catchments across the Nile Basin

Abstract

This research focuses on the complex dynamics governing the sensitivity of streamflow to variations in rainfall and potential evapotranspiration (PET) within the Nile basin. By employing a hydrological model, our study examines the interrelationships between meteorological variables and hydrological responses across six catchments (Blue Nile, El Diem, Kabalega, Malaba, Mpanga, and Ribb) and explores the intricate balance between rainfall, PET, and streamflow. Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) for calibration of the hydrological model ranged from 0.636 (Ribb) to 0.831 (El Diem). For validation, NSE ranged from 0.608 (Ribb) to 0.811 (Blue Nile). With rainfall kept constant while PET was increased by 5%, the streamflows of the Blue Nile, El Diem, Kabalega, Malaba, Mpanga, and Ribb decreased by 7.00, 5.08, 2.49, 4.10, 1.84, and 7.67%, respectively. With the original PET data unchanged, increasing rainfall of the Blue Nile, El Diem, Kabalega, Malaba, Mpanga, and Ribb by 5% led to an increase in streamflow by 9.02, 9.87, 5.38, 4.34, 6.58, and 8.32%, respectively. The research reveals that the rate at which a catchment losing water to the atmosphere (determined by PET) substantially influences its drying rate. Utilizing linear models, we demonstrate that the surplus rainfall available for increasing streamflow (represented by model intercepts) amplifies with higher rainfall intensities. This highlights the pivotal role of rainfall in shaping catchment water balance dynamics. Moreover, our study stresses the varied sensitivities of catchments within the basin to changes in PET and rainfall. Catchments with lower PET exhibit heightened responsiveness to increasing rainfall, accentuating the influence of evaporative demand on streamflow patterns. Conversely, regions with higher PET rates necessitate refined management strategies due to their increased sensitivity to changes in evaporative demand. Understanding the intricate interplay between rainfall, PET, and streamflow is paramount for developing adaptive strategies amidst climate variability. By examining these relationships, our research contributes essential knowledge for sustainable water resource management practices at both the catchment and regional scales, especially in regions susceptible to varying sensitivities of catchments to climatic conditions.