Journal Articles

Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12504/47

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Browsing Journal Articles by Subject "Climate change"

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    Improving climate information through projecting climate change and variability in the Upper Awash Subbasin, Ethiopia
    (Springer, 2025-08-26) Abebe, Bezu Bedada; Gudina Legese Feyisa; Asfaw Kebede; Majaliwa Mwanjalolo; Gabiri Geofery; Mitiku Adisu Worku; Elias Abdi
    Climate change and variability have significantly impacted developing countries like Ethiopia, primarily due to a lack of accurate climatic information that is vital for effective planning and adaptation strategies. The study aimed to improve the reliability of climate information in Ethiopia, where insufficient information hinders mitigation and adaptation to climate change effects. The analysis utilized observational reference period data alongside CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6) General Circulation Model (GCM) data under various scenarios employing SD-GCM V2.0 for bias correction and statistical downscaling. The findings suggest that the highest maximum annual temperatures will rise by 2.03 °C under the SSP5–8.5 scenario. Mean annual rainfall is likely to increase by 23.5% and 5.3% over the projected period, both the highest and lowest recorded under SSP5–8.5. The coefficient of variation analysis revealed that most stations exhibited moderate and high annual and seasonal rainfall variability during the observation period. Meanwhile, the projected seasonal and annual rainfall displayed high variability compared to the observational reference period. However, all stations recorded less variation in yearly minimum and maximum temperatures throughout the study. While there is a substantial increase in average annual rainfall, there are still years with lower and higher yearly rainfall that likely led to drought and flooding in certain areas. In managing the droughts and floods expected due to climate change and variability, it is essential to implement mitigation and adaptation techniques with comprehensive disaster risk management strategies. Hence, the current study aims to improve the reliability of climate information in the UASB, Ethiopia.
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    Past, present and future climate trends under varied representative concentration pathways for a sub-humid region in Uganda
    (MDPI: Climate, 2019-02-26) Egeru, Anthony; Barasa, Bernard; Nampijja, Josephine; Siya, Aggrey; Makooma, Moses Tenywa; Majaliwa, Mwanjalolo G. J.
    Long-term trend analysis at local scale for rainfall and temperature is critical for detecting climate change patterns. This study analysed historical (1980–2009), near future (2010–2039), mid- (1940–2069) and end-century (2070–2099) rainfall and temperature over Karamoja sub-region. The Modern Era-Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) daily climate data provided by the Agricultural Model Inter-comparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) was used. The AgMIP delta method analysis protocol was used for an ensemble of 20 models under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5). Historical mean rainfall was 920.1 ± 118.9 mm and minimum, maximum and mean temperature were 16.8 ± 0.5 °C, 30.6 ± 0.4 °C and 32.0 ± 0.7 °C, respectively. Minimum temperature over the historical period significantly rose between 2000 and 2008. Near future rainfall varied by scenario with 1012.9 ± 146.3 mm and 997.5 ± 144.7 mm for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 respectively; with a sharp rise predicted in 2017. In the mid-century, mean annual rainfall will be 1084.7 ± 137.4 mm and 1205.5 ± 164.9 mm under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 respectively. The districts of Kaabong and Kotido are projected to experience low rainfall total under RCP4.5 (mid-century) and RCP8.5 (end-century). The minimum temperature is projected to increase by 1.8 °C (RCP4.5) and 2.1 °C (RCP8.5) in mid-century, and by 2.2 °C (RCP4.5) and 4.0 °C (RCP8.5) in end-century.