Browsing by Author "Ssemanda, Patrick Edward"

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    Causal relationship between economic growth and foreign direct investment, trade openness, gross capital formation and real effective exchange rate in Uganda
    (SunText Review of Economics & Business, 2026-04-19) Ssemanda, Patrick Edward
    This article examines the relationship between foreign direct investment (FDI), Trade openness (TO), Real effective exchange rate (REER), Gross capital formation (GCF) and economic growth in Uganda for the 1986 to 2023 period using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach and the Toda-Yamamoto (1995) method. The Toda-Yamamoto results show that there is unidirectional causality from Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) to Economic growth, real effective exchange rate (REER) and unidirectional causality from REER to FDI. There is no evidence of significant causality from Trade openness, REER, and GCF to economic growth. In the short run the previous values of TO, REER affected economic growth positively while FDI affected economic growth positively but previous values of FDI significantly affected economic growth negatively. In the log run FDI, GCF positively affected economic growth. From sustainability perspective, the lack of a significant causal effect from REER, TO and GCF to economic growth suggests that Uganda’s economic policy, which is based on private sector-led and TO led growth, has not significantly transformed the economy to bring about significant growth-enhancing effects. This study recommends that policymakers in Uganda should identify measures that enhance trade openness (exports and imports) competitiveness alongside investment promotion that could assure diversification of the country’s exports to international markets that could improve REER.
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    The effects of real interest rate, external and domestic debt to economic growth in Uganda
    (Journal of International Money, Banking and Finance, 2025-06-28) Ssemanda, Patrick Edward; Fred Matovu
    This study used Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach provide analysis of the effects of real interest rate, external and domestic debt to GDP ratio and other factors on economic growth for a period (1986–2023) for Uganda. This study observes a negative relationship between external and a positive domestic debt and growth in the short run. The estimates of the model show that a 10 percentage point increase in the external debt-to-gross domestic product ratio will result in 91.9 percent point reduction in economic growth. In addition, a 10 percent increase in the domestic debt to GDP ratio results in a 30.7 percentage increase in economic growth. Also the real interest rate affects the economic growth negatively. A 10 percentage increase in real interest rate will result in a 1.06 reduction in economic growth. In the long run, the results established that both the external and domestic debt to GDP ratio affect economic growth negatively while the real interest rate affect economic growth positively. A 10 percent increase in external and domestic debt to GDP ratio will result in a 21.5 and 4.97 percentage reduction in economic growth respectively. While a 10 percentage point increase in real interest rate will cause a 2.7 increase in economic growth in the same period.