An environmental impact assessment of Saudi Arabia’s vision 2030 for sustainable urban development: A policy perspective on greenhouse gas emissions

Abstract

Globally, countries are legitimizing actions to curtail the malevolent impacts of environmental degradation. This study examined the interaction between CO2 emissions and selected economic variables within the framework of Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030. The Autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) was used to analyze the long-run relationships and short-run dynamics between studied variables (1970–2020). The Mann-Kendall (MK) test revealed a significant (p < 0.05) positive increase of GHGs emissions from all sectors across the KSA. The highest increased were captured at the electricity and heat by 7345454.47 tonnes of carbon dioxide-equivalents/year (p < 0.05). On the hand, the ARDL model indicates that GDP, agriculture, industry, services, and oil production have short-term effects on the environment through CO2 emissions. Therefore, GDP, agriculture, services and oil production contribute to increases in CO2 emissions. While industry contributes to decrease in CO2 emissions. The ARDL model also showed that an increase in GDP of 1 percent increases CO2 emissions by 3.46 percent, while an increase in oil production of 1 percent increases CO2 emissions by 4.04 percent. However, an increase in industry of 1 percent decreases CO2 emissions by 7.25 percent. The output of this research has a policy implication for addressing environmental concerns in the country.